Protests in Armenia on June 22, 2015

yerevan3Preamble: Boris Rozhin followed this analysis with another article, which explores further developments in Yerevan after the initial protest action, which erupted on June 22, 2015, was dispersed. That note will be published shortly. We suggest that the analysis below be read in conjunction with Anatoly Nesmiyan’s assessment, which was published on earlier.

Original: Colonel Cassad / Boris Rozhin (June 22, 2015)
Translated by Gleb Bazov

On June 22, 2015 we saw an intensification of protests in Armenia, triggered by an increase in electricity tarrif rates.

As it often happens, objective economic demands began to be supplemented with political ones. Since the company that increased the tarrifs belongs to the Russian Federation, it is natural that, in addition to the demands not to raise the tariffs and to return everything to the way it was, there also appeared demands directed against the incumbent President (who is quite convenient for Russia) and against…

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ElectricYerevan—a colour revolution or a social protest?

Original: El Murid/Anatoly Nesmiyan
Translated by Gleb Bazov / Edited by Gracchus Babeuf

The events taking place in Armenia are already being called a Maidan, by analogy with the coup in Kiev. In reality, of course, it is too early to say this.

Maidan is one of the variants of a colour revolution, or, in other words, an attempt to seize and retain political power through the proven technology of youth protest. To judge whether something is, or is not, a colour revolution, is possible only upon the occurrence of clearly manifesting conditions—the necessary and the sufficient.

The necessary condition for a colour revolution is the existence of political instability in a country and a crisis of the incumbent authorities. An essential condition is one without which a phenomenon is impossible. Judging from what is happening in Armenia, this condition is, in fact, present.

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